Football: LPS Ratings Guru

Let’s take a look at the current standings then I’ll get into why these games are so important. 

Division 6

Oakton 9-0 VHSL Ave 33.1

Westfield 7-2 VHSL Ave 30.1

Chantilly 7-2 VHSL Ave 29.8

West Springfield 6-3 VHSL Ave 28.1

Woodson 7-2 VHSL Ave 27.4

Herndon 6-3 VHSL Ave 26.1

Annandale 6-3 VHSL Ave 26

West Potomac 5-4 VHSL Ave 24.9

Langley 4-5 VHSL Ave 24.8

Robinson 4-5 VHSL Ave 23.8

Lake Braddock 4-5 VHSL Ave 23.7

Fairfax 4-5 VHSL Ave 23.6

T.C. Williams 3-6 VHSL Ave 22

Centreville 1-8 VHSL Ave 19

The only seed locked up at this point is No 1 seed Oakton.  Win or lose to Herndon, I haven’t found any combination of wins and losses by their opponents that would allow them to be caught. 

Seeds 2 through 8 are still up for grabs with 8 teams in contention for those 7 spots.

Edison at Chantilly is a huge game because it will determine the No2 seed in D-6, and the No1 and No2 seeds in D-5.  It may also determine whether or not Lee gets into the D-5 playoff field.  If Chantilly wins, No2 D-6 seed belongs to them.  Westfield would drop to No3.  If Chantilly loses, Westfield would get No2 and Chantilly No3, assuming Westfield can beat Centreville.

West Springfield is currently No4, and I don’t see them moving unless they are upset. Woodson is currently No5 and they won’t move unless they can upset Stone Bridge, then they could move up one spot to No4. Herndon is currently No6, and I see them moving down to No7 unless they can upset Oakton in which case they can be the No4 seed.  If South County beats Annandale,  Herndon will maintain No6, however if Annandale beats South County Annandale can move up to No6.

South County at Annandale will, barring any upsets like Herndon over Oakton or Woodson over Stone Bridge, determine the No6 through No8 seeds in D-6.  Annandale must win to stay in according to my calculations.  If South County wins, and West Potomac can take care of T.C. Williams, West Potomac could just slip by Annandale by 1/10^th of a point assuming Mt Vernon and Yorktown can win.  It would be Herndon No6, South County No7, and West Potomac No8.   If Annandale wins, then Annandale is in at No6, Herndon would slip to No7, and South County is in at No8.

The rest of the D-6 teams are fighting for pride at this point.  None of them can get into the playoffs. 

That brings us to the D-5 playoff picture.  It’s a little more complicated at the bottom. Before getting into it though, I’d like to talk about upsets.  I stated here a week ago that there hadn’t really been any in D-5 and that still holds true.  Could this be the week?  If you look at Kenneth Massey’s ratings and some other ratings out there, Edison is a favorite this week, while others have Chantilly as a favorite.  The same holds true for South County at Annandale and Jefferson at South Lakes.  Here are the current standings for D-5

Edison 9-0 VHSL Ave 32

Stone Bridge 9-0 VHSL Ave 30.4

Mt Vernon 7-2 VHSL Ave 26.9

Madison 5-4 VHSL Ave 24.7

Yorktown 5-4 VHSL Ave 24.1

Washington – Lee 5-4 VHSL Ave 22.3

Lee 3-6 VHSL Ave 22.3

Jefferson 3-6 VHSL Ave 20.8

Wakefield 3-6 VHSL Ave 20.1

South Lakes 2-7 VHSL Ave 18.7

Hayfield 1-8 VHSL Ave 18.4

Falls Church 0-9 VHSL Ave 16.9

Stuart 1-8 VHSL Ave 16.7

McLean 0-9 VHSL Ave 16.7

The No1 and No2 seeds should be determined by Edison at Chantilly.  According to my calculations, if Edison loses, assuming Stone Bridge beats Woodson, Stone Bridge would win the No1 seed by somewhere between 2/10^th and 6/10^th of a point.  Edison’s average with a loss would drop to 31.something, and Stone Bridge’s average with a win would be high 31 or low 32.something.  The South County at Annandale game also plays into this scenario because Edison played South County and a South County win gives them 2/10^th of a point in final average.  Stone Bridge will look closely at Robinson at Fairfax because a Robinson win would give them an additional 2/10^th of a point.  I think Stone Bridge with a win can finish with no worse than a 31.8 and an Edison loss means Edison can finish with no better than a 31.6. 

That brings me to the No3 through No5 seeds.  I really see no movement there because I see all three teams winning easily this week.  Yorktown, the No5 Seed plays at the current No6 seed Washington-Lee this week.  A Washington-Lee win would flip-flop those seeds.  A Yorktown win would pretty much lock these two as they are now unless Madison or Mt Vernon gets upset.  Mt Vernon travels to Wakefield and Madison travels to Marshall. 

This brings us to No7 and No8.  Things get a little complicated here.  Marshall currently holds No7 by virtue of tie breaker over Lee.  Jefferson can jump over both of them with a win at South Lakes, and a Jefferson win would actually hurt Marshall because Marshall lost to Jefferson but beat South Lakes.  Also factoring into this is Edison at Chantilly because Lee played Edison. 

Let’s figure this out based upon Jefferson, Lee, and Marshall all lose, because a win would put any of them in.  If they all lose, Jefferson is out and No7 and No8 will be determined by Edison at Chantilly because an Edison win would give Lee the No7 seed and Marshall the No8 seed.  An Edison loss would mean a tie, and I think Marshall owns the tie-breaker with Lee, so then Marshall would be No7 and Lee No8.

If Jefferson wins, they would be No7 and Lee would be No8 and Marshall would be out. Jefferson’s win would mean Lee can’t catch them for No7 no matter what, unless Lee wins. 

If Lee wins, they are in at No6, Washington-Lee would slide to No7, Marshall would be No8, and Jefferson would be out. 

If all three teams win, it would be Lee No7, Marshall No8, and Jefferson out.

Any way you look at it, Lee is in the playoffs. Marshall and Jefferson still have work to do, and Jefferson needs the most help.  They can win and still not get in. 

Wakefield can make it even more complicated if they can beat Mt Vernon.  I won’t even get into that, other than to say they are still very much alive if they win.  Wakefield played and beat Jefferson, played and lost to Edison and Madison who plays Marshall, hence the added level of complication.  Truth is, I have a super-computer dedicated just toward figuring it all out, and it’s still churning the numbers.  Just kidding, but I’m not kidding about not getting into it here.  I will say that in all likelihood, if Wakefield can win, they are in.  About the only scenario which would eliminate them would be if Jefferson, Lee, and Marshall all win. 

Recall my discussion on upsets?  Well, none of these teams is favored by the same Kenneth Massey, so one of these “upsets” might just be the one or two we’ve been lacking in D-5 to shake things up.  It could come at the bottom of the pile not the top.     

No one else in D-5 has any possibility of making it in, upset or not.    

Question Time! 

Dear LPS Guru,

Excuse me but You said that Robinson has 23.8 or 214 total points they actually have 24.0 or 216 total points. The VHSL site had not recognized that Annacostia had won by Monday morning because they have to go through the and confirm that Annacostia beat Spingarn, which they did 28-21. This would make Robinson have a chance at a post season berth by a # of things happening.

    -An Robinson Win over Fairfax+

    -An Herndon Win over Oakton+

    -An Falls Church loss to Stuart+

    -An Chantilly win over Edison+

    -An Lake Braddock Win over Hayfield+

    -An Centrville win over Westfield+

    -An Annacostia win over H.D. Woodson+

    -An West Potomac loss to T.C. Williams+

    OR A West Potomac Win along with losses from Mount Vernon and Yorktown.

    (If West Potomac were to win and Mount Vernon and Yorktown were to lose,

    Because Centrville won West Potomac would end up with 259 points, tieing Robinson

    if these scenarios played out, thus it would go to the tiebreaker. Thus by rule #2,

    The team with the better record against all common opponents)

If these scenarios played out the playoff picture would look like this with a West Pot win and Mv and Yrktwn loss.

7. Annadale- 27.4

8.Robinson- 25.9* Winner of Tiebreaker Rule #2 9.West Potomac-25.9*(lost to Lake Braddock) 10.South County-25.8

If these scenarios played out the playoff picture would look like this with a South County loss.

7.Annadal-27.4

8.Robinson-25.9

9.West Potomac-25.8

10.Langley-25.3

Just wanted to clarify a few things and while centrville might seem a stretch you might wanna think twice since it is their seniors last game and it is a Concorde District Rival. And remeber T.C. Williams has beaten West Springfield and Lake Braddock both whom beat West Potomac.Along with Herndon whos fighting to play for a higher seed, one who upset westfield, goes to Oakton wanting to get a Win after having 430 yards ran on them by Robinson. Nothing is Impossible!

Thanks