By E. Shawn Aylsworth
Managing Editor

Anyone who knows me understands that I get my jollies – and fight off increasingly frequent bouts of insomnia – by “going inside the numbers.” So what does that mean?

Power ratings (setting the big games of the week for boys basketball and girls basketball based off Jeff Sagarin’s system). State rankings (know anywhere else where polls for the state’ various in-season teams and individuals get posted quicker?). Sport histories (so, what’s this about Carmel having won 21 girls swimming titles in a row …).

Gimme that stuff and a set of highlighters, and I become more dangerous than the specter of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton. So what’s the point?

This weekend brings the 34th Annual IHSAA Girls Swimming State Finals at the Indiana University Natatorium in Indianapolis. I got to wondering about just how likely it is that top-ranked Carmel was going to set history by tying that national record of 22 straight state championships in any girls sport.

So I printed out the psych sheet, busted out the pencil and highlighters, and got all inside them watery numbers. Know what I found?

That, based on the assumption that everything goes according to the seeds on the psych sheet (and yes, I realize that’s extremely unlikely – but it’s also the most scientific, “inside-the-numbers” approach I could think of), second-ranked Hamilton Southeastern will come within a hair of bursting Carmel’s bubble.
 
The projected final team scores:

1. #1 Carmel 333
2. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 325
3. #4 Homestead 179
4. #3 Center Grove 175
5. #5 Columbus North 148
6. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 140
7. tie, #6 Fort Wayne Snider and #14 Harrison (West Lafayette) 54

Of course, that tie with Snider for the seventh spot would nearly single-handedly come from Harrison’s Jenny Connolly, a shoo-in to pick up 40 points all by her lonesome by defending her crowns in the 100-yard butterfly and the 100 backstroke (that would give the senior five state championships for her career). Throw in a projected 13th-place finish in the 200 medley relay where Connolly swims the opening leg, and Harrison gets to 54 points.

But I digress.

The centerpiece of this foray into soothsaying is the possibility of defending state runner-up HSE catching – and possibly surpassing – Hamilton County neighbor Carmel. And after running the numbers, I know just where that feat can occur!

Keep in mind that Carmel has advanced 24 swims to Friday’s prelims– one more than HSE. THINK THAT MIGHT BE KEY?!?! Homestead is next with 17, followed by Columbus North at 14.

Here’s an event-by-event look at how the state finals should play out according to psych sheet seed times …

Event 1 Girls 200 Yard Medley Relay
HSE set a state finals record in this event a year ago, and all four individuals who did so – junior Maegan O’Connor, senior Christina Jacobs, senior Lindsay Rogers, and sophomore Carly Mercer – return. The Royals own a .52 advantage over No. 2 seed Center Grove here, with Carmel at No. 6, and there’s no reason to think HSE won’t repeat to get off to the fastest possible start in the team standings.

Obviously, if the Greyhounds can outdo that sixth seed that would mean bonus points, and it appears that they could gain as many as four points by moving up to fourth. Remarkably, this should be the first – and last – event at which point any team not named Carmel or Hamilton Southeastern appears at the top of the team leaderboard.

Projected team standings after Event 1:

1. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 40
2. #3 Center Grove 34
3. #4 Homestead 32
4. #5 Columbus North 30
5. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 28
6. #1 Carmel 26

Event 2 Girls 200 Yard Freestyle
Here’s where Carmel begins to show its perennial strength – depth. The ’Hounds have three swimmers seeded among the top 16 in four different events, the only school with a trip of potential point harvesters.

In the 200 free, Carmel has the first of those four trios seeded among the top 11, and they figure to rack up 43 points here with an intimidating 1-2 finish from sophomore Trish Regan and senior Samantha Partridge as well as an 11th-place effort from freshman Lauren Jordan.

That’s +15 – Carmel’s second-biggest event advantage – over HSE, which figures to get a fourth-place finish from junior Erin Kelley and a sixth from sophomore Aubrey Hertzler. Such a scenario would give the Greyhounds a one-point advantage, 69-68, and set the tone for some serious fireworks to come.

Projected team standings after Event 2:

1. #1 Carmel 69
2. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 68
3. #5 Columbus North 44
4. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 37
5. #4 Homestead 33

Event 3 Girls 200 Yard IM
The entire free world expects Center Grove senior Michelle McKeehan, who owns a ridiculous seed margin of over five seconds in the 200 IM, to collect career title No. 7 here, with HSE’s Rogers the heavy favorite for runner-up. Fellow Royal senior Emily Schroeder, meanwhile, is in line for a 10th-place finish.

Still, Carmel (+4 over HSE) should extend its lead here with a 4-8-15 finish from its second trio of senior Emily Dibenigno, Amder Molina, and sophomore Megan Jex.

Projected team standings after Event 3:

1. #1 Carmel 97
2. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 92
3. #3 Center Grove 70
4. #5 Columbus North 61
5. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 38
6. #4 Homestead 37

Event 4 Girls 50 Yard Freestyle
Southeastern’s Mercer is the favorite here, and a victory combined with sophomore Paige Copeland’s projected 10th-place finish would allow HSE (+11) to retake the lead, 119-113, as Carmel figures to finish with just one points producer, third-place junior Megan Detro.

This should be HSE’s second-strongest event over Carmel, but with 50 free times being so close together there’s all kinds of opportunity for either team to acquire some bonus points.

Projected team standings after Event 4:

1. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 119
2. #1 Carmel 113
3. #5 Columbus North 75
4. #3 Center Grove 70
5. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 50
6. #4 Homestead 37

Event 5 Girls 1-Meter Diving
THE KEY TO THE MEET! Hamilton Southeastern has a pair of potential point harvesters in the diving finals, including the state’s top-ranked diver, senior Sarah Clay. But Clay’s disappointing finish at the diving regionals got her only a seventh seed … could it be the Royals were sandbagging?

If so, then Clay’s performance from a meter above the pool could be the difference between Carmel tying that crazy national record or Clay going down in history as one of the biggest spoilers ever. (And yes, the Carmel/Clay pun was intended.)

Based on Clay’s projected seventh-place finish and a ninth from junior Christina Beyerl, HSE is a +21 here – by far the Royals’ biggest advantage over Carmel in any event. (This is the only place where Carmel has no one competing in the state finals.) But if Clay can live up to her No. 1-ranked billing, she can add eight points to HSE’s total.

Such a scenario could eventually allow Southeastern to pull into a tie with Carmel at 333 team points when all is said and done. So there you have HSE’s hidden jewel.

Projected team standings after Event 5:

1. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 140
2. #1 Carmel 113
3. #5 Columbus North 75
4. #3 Center Grove 70
5. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 63
6. #4 Homestead 41

Event 6 Girls 100 Yard Butterfly
Senior Jenny Connolly of Harrison (West Lafayette) is a monster favorite to collect career title No. 4 here, while the seedings tell us that Carmel’s third trio of swimmers should make the 100 fly a +8 for the Greyhounds over HSE.

Junior Jesse Hammes is seeded third, while freshmen Devon Mason and Rhiannon Sheets are set up for finishes at Nos. 8 and 9, respectively. That would trump HSE’s projected effort of 4-6 from O’Connor and Copeland, allowing Carmel to creep back within 19 points at 168-149.

Projected team standings after Event 6:

1. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 168
2. #1 Carmel 149
3. #5 Columbus North 79
4. #3 Center Grove 77
5. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 71
6. #4 Homestead 55

Event 7 Girls 100 Yard Freestyle
The 100 free will be the closest for Carmel and Southeastern of any of the individual races, according to the psych sheet. The Royals figure to be +2 with a 1-8 finish from Mercer and Kelley, while Carmel can closely counter with a 2-7 result from Detro and Regan.

It goes without saying that bonus points in this event could be HYOOGE.

Projected team standings after Event 7:

1. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 199
2. #1 Carmel 178
3. #5 Columbus North 85
3. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 85
5. #3 Center Grove 77
6. #4 Homestead 62

Event 8 Girls 500 Yard Freestyle
Partridge is a prohibitive favorite here with a five second-plus advantage over the field, and pairing that victory with an eighth-place finish from junior Amada Lukovic in Carmel’s strongest event over HSE (+21) would pull the Greyhounds into a team tie at 209.

The Royals should pick up nine points from Schroeder (ninth) and one from sophomore Megan Schwartzkopf (16th) … GAME ON!

. Projected team standings after Event 8:

1. #1 Carmel 209
1. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 209
3. #3 Center Grove 99
4. #5 Columbus North 89
5. #4 Homestead 88
6. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 85

Event 9 Girls 200 Yard Freestyle Relay
The 200 free relay should be where Carmel (+10) takes the lead for good as the last three events go +3 Carmel, +3 HSE, +2 HSE. The seedings set up for a Carmel victory here with Southeastern coming in fourth, and those 10 points project out to be the difference in the final standings.

Can HSE rise to the occasion with the team title, in all probability, being on the line?

Projected team standings after Event 9:

1. #1 Carmel 249
2. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 239
3. #4 Homestead 122
4. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 117
5. #5 Columbus North 115
6. #3 Center Grove 99

Event 10 Girls 100 Yard Backstroke
Connolly should close out her career with state title No. 5 in the 100 back, where Carmel breaks out its potentially back-breaking fourth trio of swimmers. With a 4-10-15 finish from Hammes, Molina, and Jex, the Greyhounds would pick up 24 points, +2 over the projected 7-9 HSE result from O’Connor and Hertzler.

Then again, with any event where times are kept in seconds rather than minutes, anything goes. ISN’T THIS FUN!!!

Projected team standings after Event 10:

1. #1 Carmel 273
2. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 260
3. #4 Homestead 122
4. #5 Columbus North 120
5. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 117
6. #3 Center Grove 115

Event 11 Girls 100 Yard Breaststroke
The curtain call for a fantastic career by McKeehan, who would tie Elkhart Central’s Lindsay Benko (an Olympic gold medalist who won state championships in the 100 free and 200 free from 1991-94) with her eighth career title here. APPLAUSE!

Like the 200 free, however, this is an event that figures to be dominated otherwise by the two Hamilton Country powerhouses with four seeds in the top six. HSE’s Rogers figures again to play bridesmaid to McKeehan’s destiny with Jacobs joining her at No. 6, making a +3 for the Royals over Dibenigno (fourth) and sophomore Lauren Stauder (sixth).

Projected team standings after Event 11:

1. #1 Carmel 301
2. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 291
3. #4 Homestead 149
4. #3 Center Grove 135
5. #5 Columbus North 120
6. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 118

Event 12 Girls 400 Yard Freestyle Relay
Fittingly, HSE and Carmel will probably be trying to out-touch each other for second in the 400 free relay behind Center Grove’s powerful freshman-freshman-freshman-McKeehan foursome in the meet’s last event.

So, would that final reach be an anti-climax or to forever seal a spot in history, one way or the other? There’s only one way we’re gonna find out …

Projected FINAL team standings:

1. #1 Carmel 333
2. #2 Hamilton Southeastern 325
3. #4 Homestead 179
4. #3 Center Grove 175
5. #5 Columbus North 148
6. #7 North Central (Indianapolis) 140

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